How Social Media Reacts To Historic Gold Price Surge

The global economy has just experienced a tumultuous 2023 marked by soaring inflation, escalating political tensions, and anticipation regarding fiscal policies in major countries, leading to gold - the safest haven asset with the best performance - continuously reaching record highs. On social media in Vietnam, public reactions to the topic also show a certain correlation with price fluctuations. Let's delve into analysis and insights with Buzzmetrics in the following article.

1. Overview of discussions on gold prices on social media

Since early February, Buzzmetrics' observations indicate that discussions on social media regarding gold prices only began to pick up after the Lunar New Year period, coinciding with a time when the short-term trend of gold prices was still uncertain. However, after February 15th, as the upward momentum of gold prices continued and consistently broke records, the volume of discussions also simultaneously trended upwards. However, the discussions truly surged due to specific catalysts, notably:  

(1) The emergence of a special occasion: By February 16th, the volume of discussions surpassed the usual levels due to the unusual fluctuations in gold prices and peaked officially on the Day of the God of Wealth (February 19th). This day is considered by Vietnamese people as a time to rush to buy gold to seek good luck for the year. Hence, discussions about gold prices surged due to buying and selling activities. In a humorous sense, discussions about gold prices were even influenced by spiritual factors. However, afterwards, the daily discussions about gold prices returned to pre-Day of the God of Wealth levels until the end of February.

(2) Gold price reaching a notable milestone: On March 2nd, when the price of gold reached the milestone of 80 million VND per tael, users began to reignite their interest in gold prices. Prior to this, gold prices experienced a decline on the Day of the God of Wealth before rebounding for over a week consecutively.

(3) Significant fluctuations between two consecutive days: Despite gold prices continuing to rise throughout the first half of March, social media discussions only surged once again on March 13th - the moment domestic gold prices dropped by 2 million VND after surpassing the 82 million VND per tael mark.

As of March 21st, discussions about gold prices are showing signs of an upcoming increase, following a proposal to abolish the gold bar monopoly - a proposal that caused a plummet in gold bar prices.

In summary, over the past two months, the topic of gold prices has heated up sequentially due to the following news events: (1) The Day of the God of Wealth - (2) Gold reaching a notable milestone (80 million VND per tael) - (3) Significant fluctuations in gold prices between two consecutive days (2 million VND). However, each time reaching a peak, discussions about gold prices quickly cool down the next day, despite the media continuously updating developments regarding gold prices.

2. How does social media react to fluctuations in gold prices?

Gold prices are a topic primarily discussed by users (including regular users, investors, and analysts), while the media represents the second largest discussion force with almost continuous posting frequency, closely following the daily fluctuations in gold prices. Alongside the sharp rise in gold prices, while many users express joy over profitable investments, numerous individuals who do not yet own gold or are considering acquiring more pose a significant question: Should they buy gold at present? This is also the dominant discussion topic, accounting for 47% of the total discussions related to gold prices during this period.

(1) To buy or sell gold: The largest analytical topic, involving participation from several financial experts. These experts not only analyze whether one should buy or sell gold but also provide education about gold and investment. According to Buzzmetrics' evaluation, the general consensus among these experts is that it is not advisable to invest in gold at this time. Further details will be explored in the following section.

(2) Explaining the current situation: Providing insights into why gold prices globally have experienced such significant fluctuations and why there is such a large disparity between the price of gold in Vietnam and the global price. By March, the price of gold in Vietnam and globally had diverged by 20 million VND.

(3) Government impact: With gold prices skyrocketing, public opinion is raising questions about the role of the government in regulation. The decision of the State Bank to abandon the monopoly on gold bar prices has sparked even livelier discussions. Public discourse is focused on analyzing the correlation between government policies and the gold price situation.

(4) Predictions of gold price movement: A topic involving participation from both analytical experts and regular users. Both experts and ordinary users predict that gold prices will continue to rise if considering the long term. Even when gold prices decrease on a given day, users still believe they will rise again in the future. Predictions of gold price decreases usually take into account short-term future scenarios or considerations of government policies.

When considering specific growth levels, international experts believe that gold could reach 110 million VND within the next 12-18 months. There are several reasons cited by experts, including inflation, the US dollar, geopolitical factors, and economic conditions. Domestic experts also share the view that gold prices will increase, but not to the extent of 110 million VND. In the upcoming period, gold could potentially reach 85 million VND. The reason given by experts is that gold in Vietnam is not heavily influenced by microeconomic conditions but rather by government policies, especially the topic of gold bar monopoly that has been mentioned. Experts also do not rule out the possibility of gold prices sharply decreasing if Decree 24 is adjusted. Gold dropping to 60 or 70 million VND per tael is a possibility.

CONCLUSION

In general, Buzzmetrics' survey of gold prices on social media indicates: 

(1) Alongside the fluctuation of gold prices, the volume of discussions on social media also experiences corresponding fluctuations.

(2) Faced with the continuous record-breaking performance of gold, users often pose questions about whether to buy or sell gold, predicting the movement of gold prices. This indicates users' interest in the topic of gold prices.

(3) Both users and expert analysts share the common belief that gold will increase in value in the long term. However, experts also add that government adjustments will help significantly decrease gold prices and narrow the gap compared to global gold prices. In the upcoming period, Decree 24 and other government adjustments will be the focal point of discussions on gold prices on social media.